Why did the forecast fail?

• Pick a case from the list. Every morning the detective opens cases for the biggest misses of FRONTIER's hourly forecast in the last 24 hours (fog, low ceiling or visibility, precipitation type, wind).
• Read the question and the verdict at the top of the case: what went wrong, and the explanation the evidence supports best, with its confidence.
• The timeline puts the forecast under investigation (dashed) against what the airport reported (solid): temperature and dew point, wind and gusts, visibility, ceiling and cloud. The grey line marks when that forecast was issued; the gold line the onset of the bust. Hover or tap for the METAR.
• Ranked explanations each list their tests: what the physics expects, what was observed, and whether it supports or contradicts the idea. Tests without data never count; they are listed as unresolved.
• Analogs show how often the same event followed similar conditions at the same airport in past years, so you can tell a rare surprise from a setup that should have been flagged.
• Investigate finds the case for an airport and time window. New windows are added by the daily pass or by our staff; the page itself never runs anything on demand.

New here? Start with ? how the detective works, then ? how confidence is scored. Words are explained in the glossary at the bottom.